When Will Indonesia Enter the COVID-19 Endemic Phase? Here's the Answer from a Mathematics Epidemiology Expert from the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Indonesia

A frequently asked question among the public at the moment is when Indonesia will enter the endemic phase of COVID-19. As is known, there are certain parameters used to determine the endemic phase of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

Based on the World Health Organization (WHO) standard parameters, to enter the endemic phase of Covid-19, a country must meet established requirements, namely the level of transmission or reproduction number (Rt) below 1, bed capacity (bed occupancy rate/BOR) 8%, positivity rate 4% and completion of vaccination of 70% of the total population.

Dr. Dipo Aldila, M.Si., a research lecturer in Mathematical Epidemiology at the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Indonesia (FMIPA UI), stated that the Indonesian government, specifically the Ministry of Health (Kemenkes), follows parameters below the WHO standards.

"Of course, the Ministry of Health and epidemiologists have a basis or formulation that aligns with the WHO. Then, the field data is calibrated with a specific model. Different models will certainly produce different predictions," he explained, as quoted by Beritasatu.com, Saturday (April 2, 2022).

He explained that he didn't know for sure how complex the Ministry of Health's parameters are. However, he believed the matter was being handled by experts within the government, and many researchers were certainly involved in determining when the endemic phase of COVID-19 might occur in Indonesia.

"I don't dare answer when it will happen because it depends on the government's intensity in carrying out various preventive interventions, in this case related to vaccines. booster. "Then, efforts are made to maintain health protocols," explained Dr. Dipo.

If all of these factors can be maintained, he believes the government's prediction of 3-6 months is accurate. However, the problem arises if people become lax about health protocols and other factors, as habits are not easily changed. This makes the prediction unpredictable. Therefore, the endemic phase of COVID-19 remains uncertain.

"So, I wouldn't dare say that the figure is accurate. But if the government were to state such a figure, I'm sure it's based on the assumption that their predictions won't change drastically," he explained.

Therefore, there are no changes in social and environmental factors that would drastically alter the essence of the model used for the prediction. If that doesn't occur, the government's stated target of 3-6 months could be achieved.

"We actually conducted calculations using a specific model, almost identical to the one used by epidemiologists, including those from the Faculty of Public Health at the University of Indonesia, regarding the requirements for the endemic phase of COVID-19 a few months ago. However, it hasn't been updated,"update he explained

According to him, the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences (FMIPA) of the University of Indonesia (UI) has also conducted research that shows the reproduction number (Rt) is below 1 because it depends on time and was implemented when the government implemented large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) with other regulations further tightened.

"So, it's true that the Rt is below 1, as reported by the government and epidemiologists, including the 8% BOR and 4% positivity rate," he said.

Potential Increase in Cases During Homecoming Travel

Meanwhile, regarding the 2022 homecoming travel phenomenon, Dr. Dipo predicts that there is still the potential for an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, despite the vaccination program and the current virus strain. However, this is believed to be insignificant because many countries, including Indonesia, have claimed that the current COVID-19 variant has fewer and fewer symptoms, unlike the previous one.

"So, it's possible that infected people won't be aware of it, so the government won't be able to check for positive cases," he said.

COVID-19 is one of the viruses that mutates most easily, and it's been a natural process since ancient times for all organisms to survive and spread. But the symptoms caused to infected people are not as severe as before.

"So it's possible that the number of cases in the field won't be as significant as last year or the last two years because the government has required those returning home to be vaccinated. booster "And antigen or PCR tests for those who have only received one or two doses to anticipate a surge in cases like the past two years," he concluded.

News source : https://sci.ui.ac.id/